Shell Forecasts Global LNG Demand to Surge 65% by 2050 as Asia Drives Energy Growth
Global demand for liquefied natural gas (LNG) is projected to increase by approximately 65% by 2050, with Asia expected to remain the primary driver of growth as countries transition from coal to cleaner energy sources and rising electricity consumption fuels demand.
According to Shell’s 2026 LNG Outlook, global LNG demand is expected to approach 700 million tonnes annually by 2050, underpinned by rapid economic growth, industrial expansion, and increasing power needs across emerging markets.
Global LNG trade reached 422 million tonnes in 2025 and was initially expected to expand further in 2026.
However, shipping disruptions through the Strait of Hormuz, caused by escalating conflict in the Middle East, have significantly affected global supplies.
The disruption has temporarily restricted around 20% of the world’s monthly LNG supply, slowing market growth this year.
Shell expects global LNG trade in 2026 to remain broadly in line with 2025 levels if shipping through the strategic waterway returns to normal during the summer. Growth is then expected to resume in 2027.
Despite the geopolitical challenges, Shell said the LNG industry has demonstrated considerable resilience.
Increased LNG production capacity, expanded regasification infrastructure, and improved operational performance at existing facilities have helped cushion the impact of supply disruptions.
The company also noted that new liquefaction projects in North America, stronger production from existing plants, and softer LNG demand in parts of Asia have partially offset reduced exports from the Middle East.
Although Asian spot LNG prices briefly climbed above US$20 per million British thermal units (MMBtu) during the peak of the crisis, they remained significantly below the record highs experienced in 2022 following Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, reflecting improved market flexibility and supply diversity.
Asia to Lead Future LNG Demand
Shell forecasts that South and Southeast Asia will account for roughly 40% of global LNG imports by 2050, as governments increasingly replace coal-fired power generation with lower-emission natural gas to support growing populations and expanding economies.
Meanwhile, in mature markets such as Japan, the rapid expansion of data centres and digital infrastructure is creating a new source of electricity demand, further supporting LNG consumption.
In Europe, LNG is expected to remain a critical component of energy security, helping countries replace declining domestic gas production while providing reliable backup for renewable energy sources such as wind and solar.
Investment Needed to Meet Future Demand
To support the expected growth in consumption, Shell estimates that approximately 180 million tonnes per year of new LNG supply will enter the market by 2030.
However, the company says substantially more investment will be required beyond that period.
Around 200 million tonnes per year of additional liquefaction capacity will need to be developed during the 2030s and 2040s, beyond projects already under construction, to meet long-term global demand.
Shell believes continued investment in LNG production, export infrastructure, and import terminals will be essential to ensuring reliable energy supplies and supporting the global transition toward lower-carbon energy systems.
