According to forecasts from American finance and insurance giant Citigroup, the barrel of Brent, which serves as a benchmark for a large part of global oil production, could collapse to around $70 in 2024.
According to these forecasts published on Monday October 2, 2023, it appears that this collapse estimated at around 70 dollars would be dependent on an expected excess supply.
“There is a risk of a significant correction during the fourth quarter of 2023 or the first three months of next year, and the barrel of Brent could fall to 71 or 72 dollars over the next six months.
This is entirely possible, even if the fundamentals and balances will not change much,” the Group said.
To date, crude oil prices have seen a spectacular rise since the spring lows, with a cumulative increase of more than 30% over the last three months.
For example, in July 2023, the price of oil in euros rebounds (+4.9% over one month after -0.7% in June). Prices in euros of imported raw materials (excluding energy) fell slightly (-0.7% after +0.8%), driven downward by those of industrial raw materials (-1.6% after +1.1 %). The prices of food raw materials, for their part, are almost stable (+0.1% after +0.6%).
Regarding the Africa Zone, the “State of African Energy Q1 2023 Report” highlights that the supply of liquids in Africa in 2023 reached nearly 7 million barrels per day (Mbps/d), or more than 430 000 barrels per day (bpd) more than Africa’s lowest levels in 2020, which were around 6.55 Mbps/d.
