U.S. Imports of Nigerian Crude Halve in January Amid Rising African Competition
The United States sharply reduced its imports of Nigeria’s crude oil in January 2026, cutting volumes by nearly half and highlighting intensifying competition in Africa’s oil sector. Data from the U.S. Census Bureau and Bureau of Economic Analysis show imports fell 47.2% month-on-month, declining from 3.15 million barrels in December 2025 to 1.66 million barrels in January, marking one of the steepest short-term drops in Nigeria’s share of the U.S. crude market in recent years.
The value of imports mirrored the decline in volume. On a customs basis, Nigerian crude exports fell from $217 million in December to $116 million in January, while cost, insurance, and freight (CIF) valuations dropped from $223 million to $119 million.
The narrowing gap between customs and CIF values suggests slightly lower shipping or insurance costs during the period.
Broader U.S. Oil Market Trends
The fall in Nigerian crude imports occurred amid a wider slowdown in U.S. oil demand. Total U.S. crude imports decreased 5.1%, from 198.3 million barrels in December to 188.2 million barrels in January, with total import values falling from $11.41 billion to $10.56 billion.
Angola and Ghana Gain at Nigeria’s Expense
While total African crude exports to the U.S. remained stable at 6.93 million barrels, other African producers captured market share.
Angola’s exports jumped from 575,000 barrels to 2.06 million barrels, while Ghana emerged as a new supplier, shipping 738,000 barrels after no measurable exports in December. By contrast, Libya’s shipments declined from 2.14 million barrels to 1.09 million barrels.
As a result, Nigeria’s share of U.S. crude imports dropped from 1.59% to 0.88%, reflecting how quickly market dynamics can shift due to pricing, logistics, and refinery demand patterns.
Nigeria’s Oil Production vs. U.S. Demand
Despite the decline in U.S. imports, Nigeria’s oil output continues to rise. The Nigerian National Petroleum Company Limited reported 1.64 million barrels per day in January, up from 1.55 million barrels per day in December.
However, higher domestic production has not translated into stronger U.S. demand, suggesting that external market forces competition from Angola and Ghana, shifting refinery requirements, and broader geopolitical factors are outweighing supply gains.
Financially, Nigeria’s state oil firm posted a profit after tax of ₦385 billion (~$260 million) in January, even as revenue fell sharply from ₦4.82 trillion to ₦2.57 trillion (~$3.2 billion to $1.7 billion). The divergence between profit and revenue reflects operational efficiencies but also points to volatility in earnings amid fluctuating export demand.
Geopolitical and Policy Headwinds
Shifts in U.S. trade policy, including minor tariff adjustments on non-oil exports, have added uncertainty to bilateral trade, though crude oil remains largely exempt.
Analysts suggest structural factors such as Nigeria’s heavy reliance on crude exports and limited market diversification pose a more pressing long-term challenge than tariffs.
Economist Muda Yusuf noted that while U.S. tariffs have limited impact, other constraints, including visa restrictions, hinder business engagement and investment inflows, affecting Nigeria’s broader trade competitiveness.
Strategic Implications
The January figures illustrate a complex reality for Nigeria: rising domestic oil output but declining demand from a key traditional market.
With Angola and Ghana gaining traction, Nigeria faces mounting pressure to diversify its export destinations and trading partners while adapting to a more competitive and geopolitically sensitive global energy landscape.
