Angola Oil Outlook Negative Until 2032 as Production Falls and New Reserves Needed
Angola’s oil sector faces a “very negative” outlook until at least 2032, with stabilization in production only possible through the discovery of new reserves, according to the Economic Report for the First Quarter of 2025 by the Economic Research Center of Lusiada University of Angola (CINVESTEC).
The study warns that oil production will continue to decline over the next seven years unless significant investments are made in both exploration and marginal fields.
However, CINVESTEC highlights that efforts to extend extraction in declining wells often require less favorable contractual terms, limiting investor appeal.
“Angola must realize that we are already in the post-oil era,” the report cautions, noting that while additional production measures are necessary, sustainable growth depends on fresh discoveries.
In the first quarter of 2025, the oil sector index dropped 3 percent compared to Q1 2022. Over the last four quarters, production fell 4.4 percent in volume, 19.5 percent in deflated value, and revenues per volume declined by 15.5 percent. Oil and gas exports also dropped 14.4 percent during the same period.
Despite producing around 1 million barrels per day, making it Sub-Saharan Africa’s second-largest producer after Nigeria, Angola is grappling with falling revenues.
In the second quarter of 2025, the country exported 83.6 million barrels, earning $5.6 billion, a 13.6 percent year-on-year decline. Compared to Q1 2025, exports decreased 3.82 percent in volume and 12.5 percent in value.
The broader extractive industry showed mixed results. Production increased 51.6 percent in volume, but in real terms fell 35.8 percent.
In the diamond sector, export volumes rose 75.6 percent, yet a 45.6 percent price drop drove revenues down by 4.5 percent.
