Diamond Price Crash Puts Botswana’s De Beers Takeover Ambitions in Jeopardy
The old saying “be careful what you wish for” may prove true for Botswana, the small southern African nation eager to take full control of the De Beers diamond empire — just as the global diamond market faces one of its worst slumps in decades.
Botswana already owns 15% of De Beers, but it has signalled interest in acquiring the entire business. The opportunity has arisen as Anglo American, the London-based majority owner, looks to sell its 85% stake as part of a corporate simplification plan designed to fend off a takeover bid from rival BHP Group.
Selling De Beers has proven challenging due to a sharp decline in natural diamond prices, driven by the rise of cheaper, visually identical lab-grown diamonds.
Anglo American has repeatedly written down De Beers’ value, now pegging it at $4.9 billion, though analysts expect the sale price to be far lower. The uncertainty is compounded by strained relations between De Beers and Botswana, the world’s second-largest source of high-quality diamonds after Russia.
Falling diamond prices and reduced production have hit Botswana’s budget hard, given its heavy dependence on diamond revenues.
Last month, President Duma Boko criticised De Beers for failing to promote diamonds effectively, suggesting that Botswana might “take control and sell them ourselves.” While some saw the remark as a negotiating tactic to spur marketing efforts, others interpreted it as a genuine interest in acquiring Anglo American’s stake.
For Botswana, such a move would be a financial stretch. Analysts warn that potential buyers could be deterred by political tensions and the president’s comments.
The diamond slump has wider economic implications. Citigroup recently warned that Botswana’s currency, the Pula, may face further devaluation beyond the 2.76% drop already implemented by the central bank in July.
David Cowan, Citi’s chief Africa economist, told Bloomberg that another devaluation this year “cannot be discounted” and that interest rates may need to rise.
The diamond mining sector faces structural challenges as lab-grown gems gain market share. Profitability in natural diamonds has eroded — De Beers reported a $189 million loss in the first half of 2025.
For Botswana, taking over De Beers could be less an opportunity than an expensive gamble. Analysts caution that it could amount to “catching a falling knife” — acquiring a struggling asset in the middle of a market collapse.
