Nigeria’s Petrol Imports Surge to 43% of Supply, Pushing Dangote Refinery to Export Surplus Fuel
Nigeria’s Dangote Petroleum Refinery is increasing petrol exports as rising imports take a growing share of the domestic market, creating uncertainty over demand and leaving the $20 billion refinery with surplus fuel.
Imported Premium Motor Spirit (PMS) accounted for approximately 43% of Nigeria’s petrol supply in July 2026, according to data from the Nigerian Midstream and Downstream Petroleum Regulatory Authority (NMDPRA).
Imports averaged 19.7 million litres per day during the month, compared with total petrol supply of 45.5 million litres per day. Domestic refineries supplied the remaining 25.8 million litres per day.
The latest figures represent a sharp reversal from May 2026, when imports averaged just 5.9 million litres per day, accounting for around 12% of total supply.
Imports subsequently climbed to 18.1 million litres per day in June before reaching 19.7 million litres in July.
Dangote Refinery said the resurgence of imported petrol has made domestic demand increasingly difficult to predict, complicating production planning and inventory management.
Rather than continue storing excess fuel and carrying the associated financing and storage costs, the refinery has increasingly opted to sell surplus production on international markets.
The company said the exports should not be interpreted as an inability to supply Nigeria, but as a commercial response to increased competition from imported products.
The development comes after Nigeria appeared to be moving towards greater fuel self-sufficiency.
In February 2026, regulators stopped issuing petrol import licences after determining that domestic production was sufficient to meet national demand.
At the time, Dangote alone was supplying about 36.5 million litres of petrol per day.
Nigeria’s Fuel Trade Shifts
The renewed imports come as Nigeria’s exports of refined petroleum products have expanded significantly.
The US Energy Information Administration reported that Nigeria’s seaborne petroleum product exports averaged 350,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026, up from 46,000 barrels per day in 2023, with the increase driven largely by Dangote Refinery.
Meanwhile, seaborne petroleum product imports fell from nearly 400,000 barrels per day in 2023 to less than 130,000 barrels per day in the second quarter of 2026. Shipments to other African countries reached nearly 120,000 barrels per day.
The contrasting trends highlight the changing dynamics of Nigeria’s downstream petroleum sector.
While Dangote Refinery has significantly increased domestic refining capacity and positioned Nigeria as an emerging exporter of refined products, rising petrol imports are now putting pressure on its share of the domestic market.
The development is also likely to renew debate over how Nigeria should balance competition in its deregulated fuel market with efforts to protect investment in domestic refining capacity.
