Driven on the back of road transportation, petrochemicals and aviation, global oil demand is projected to increase by more than 16 million barrels per day – rising to 116 million barrels per day – in 2045, retaining the largest share of the global energy mix at 29.5%.
As such, according to OPEC’s 2023 World Oil Outlook 2045 publication, downstream investment is poised to play a significant role in meeting Africa’s energy demands and resource monetization strategies, with an estimated $1.7 trillion in investment in the long-term required to sustain oil supplies.
“OPEC and Africa need to talk more,” stated Executive Chairman of the African Energy Chamber NJ Ayuk during a downstream investment event in Cape Town on April 22, adding, “It’s very important that we focus on not reducing oil and gas development, but actually producing more.
We have to take a commitment with OPEC where we have to produce every drop of hydrocarbons that we can find on this continent.”
In Africa, the Middle East and Asia-Pacific regions, downstream additions are expected to account for 84% of total downstream infrastructure by 2045, with $1.7 trillion in refinery development investment required to meet energy demand.
Meanwhile, over $1.13 trillion is estimated in the continuous maintenance of installed refining capacity.
“We need to continue investing in oil and gas, reducing emissions and diversifying our investment portfolios,” stated Abderrezak Benyoucef, Head of the Energy Studies Department at OPEC.
Ahead of this year’s COP29 climate conference in Azerbaijan, Africa has sought to develop a roadmap towards sustainable development and the energy transition on the back of hydrocarbon development.
In addition to oil, renewables and natural gas will have the largest and fastest growth in the global energy mix by 2045 – with energy demand forecast to increase by 23%.
However, it was noted during the Cape Town event that long-term sustainable growth will need to be achieved on the back of resource development.
“At COP, one of the key things that we need to be clear about from an African perspective is, we need to have energy to transition,” stated Anibor Kragha, Executive Secretary of the African Refiners and Distributors Association, adding, “We need to drill responsibly, decarbonize existing assets and monetize our resources in a way that makes sense.”
In a bid to highlight the need for investment, it was also noted that a cumulative investment of $14 trillion in oil will be required by 2045 to meet Africa’s energy needs, with an estimated $550 billion in new refinery units in the medium- to long-term.
“Abandoning oil and gas is not an option for Africa. There are so many other ways we can solve greenhouse emission issues in the world,” stated Director of Research at the African Petroleum Producers’ Organization Dr. Taher Najah, adding, “We have many challenges, but I think the most important challenge is how we align our strategies to the continent.”
