Rovuma LNG Project May Boost Mozambique GDP by $11 Billion a Year, Says Standard Bank Study
Standard Bank’s Mozambican subsidiary says the Rovuma LNG project, led by US energy major ExxonMobil in the Rovuma Basin in northern Cabo Delgado province, could significantly transform Mozambique’s economy, adding an estimated average of US$11 billion to GDP annually.
The project, which is nearing a final investment decision (FID), is expected to generate up to US$150 billion in total government revenue over a 30-year production period.
With an estimated development cost of around US$30 billion prior to first gas currently projected for 2030 Rovuma LNG is widely regarded as one of the largest commercial energy projects ever planned in Africa.
According to a Standard Bank study assessing a “current case” scenario from 2025 to 2056, aligned with the project’s anticipated concession period, Rovuma LNG could generate approximately 151,000 jobs and nearly US$4 billion in annual tax revenues, providing a substantial boost to Mozambique’s economic outlook.
The report also estimates that the project could contribute around US$9 billion annually to Mozambique’s balance of payments and increase average household incomes by approximately 21%.
It projects that Mozambique’s real economic growth rate could rise from 3.3% to 4.1% per year.
By 2056, the country’s Sovereign Wealth Fund could accumulate as much as US$81 billion in real terms, creating a significant financial buffer for future generations.
In addition to GDP gains, the study forecasts an increase of roughly US$6 billion per year in Gross National Income, alongside the creation of approximately 1,000 direct operational jobs once production begins.
Standard Bank Mozambique Chief Executive Officer Bernardo Aparício said tax revenues from the project would play a critical role in reducing sovereign debt and expanding public investment.
“Tax revenues will play a critical role in reducing sovereign debt and strengthening public investment in key development areas, while simultaneously supporting broader economic growth. Rovuma LNG represents a unique opportunity for Mozambique’s development,” he said at the launch of the study.
Standard Bank Mozambique Director of Corporate and Investment Banking João Guirengane said revenues from the project could be channelled into the country’s National Development Strategy (ENDE), supporting long-term growth and job creation.
The study updates earlier analysis released in March 2019, which was based on a smaller planned liquefaction capacity of 15.2 million tonnes per annum (MTPA). The revised report reflects updated ExxonMobil data, including an expanded potential capacity of up to 18 MTPA, as well as the establishment of Mozambique’s Sovereign Wealth Fund in 2025.
Rovuma LNG remains one of the most closely watched liquefied natural gas developments in Africa, given its scale, investment size, and potential macroeconomic impact on Mozambique.
