Consultancy firm Oxford Economics has revised its forecast for Angola’s oil production, projecting the country will pump 1.18 million barrels per day in 2024, a 4% increase from 2023 levels. Angola is the second-largest oil producer in sub-Saharan Africa.
“We expect Angola’s oil production to rise by 4%, from 1.13 million barrels per day in 2023 to 1.18 million barrels per day in 2024, with a slight increase to 1.19 million barrels per day in 2025,” analysts from Oxford Economics’ African department stated.
Despite a slight dip in production during August, “cumulative output for the first eight months of 2024 is significantly higher compared to the same period in 2023,” the analysts noted.
They added that the expected launch of a new project later this year could further boost production, helping offset any losses from unexpected well maintenance.
In August, Angola’s oil production reached 1.20 million barrels per day, down from 1.22 million barrels in July, according to the International Energy Agency.
Despite the month-to-month decrease, both figures are above the government’s target of 1.18 million barrels per day.
Oxford Economics also highlighted that after extensive maintenance operations in early 2023, which caused a temporary drop in output, Angola’s production has steadily recovered.
This recovery is contributing to broader economic growth, which is projected to improve to 2.9% this year.
Angola’s production increase follows its exit from the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) at the end of 2023 due to disagreements over production limits. OPEC had set a target of 1.11 million barrels per day for Angola, while the country sought to produce an additional 70,000 barrels.
“We believe Angola has nothing to gain by remaining in OPEC at this time and, in defense of our national interests, we have decided to leave,” said Minister Diamantino Pedro Azevedo when announcing the decision on December 21, 2023.
“This decision was not taken lightly,” Azevedo explained. “We have been very active in OPEC for the past six years, but our role was no longer relevant, and this is the right moment for us to exit.”
During the December 2023 OPEC meeting, Angola reaffirmed its position, but OPEC, breaking with its usual unanimity, imposed a quota that Angola could not accept, leading to the country’s departure from the organization.
