Africa to Add 1.2 Million bpd Refining Capacity by 2030, Creating $100 Billion Investment Opportunity
Africa is poised to add 1.2 million barrels per day (bpd) of refining capacity by 2030, making it one of the fastest-growing regions for refinery development, according to the 2025 OPEC World Oil Outlook.
Key projects in Nigeria, Angola, and Uganda are driving this growth, reflecting the continent’s efforts to strengthen energy supply and attract investment.
Nigeria leads the expansion with the 650,000-bpd Dangote Refinery, which began operations in 2024 and is already transforming regional fuel trade.
Additional projects include the 200,000-bpd Akwa Ibom Refinery and other modular refinery initiatives across the country.
Angola plans to complete the 200,000-bpd Lobito Refinery and the 100,000-bpd Soyo Refinery by 2030, while Uganda advances its 60,000-bpd Hoima Refinery as part of the Lake Albert Basin development.
Other African nations, including Ghana, Guinea-Conakry, and the Republic of Congo, are rolling out modular refineries, which provide scalable solutions where financing and infrastructure remain challenges.
In North Africa, Algeria is constructing the Hassi Messaoud Refinery, Libya is progressing with the Ubari project, and Egypt is moving forward with the Soukhna Refinery, aiming to improve domestic fuel supply and reduce import dependency.
OPEC estimates that Africa will require over $40 billion in refining investment by 2030. Beyond 2030, an additional $60 billion will be needed for new refineries, upgrades, and secondary processing—creating a $100 billion investment opportunity for developers, investors, and state-backed funds.
Africa’s domestic crude demand is projected to rise from 1.8 million bpd in 2024 to 4.5 million bpd by 2050. As consumption grows, exports are expected to fall by over one million bpd, signaling a shift toward local refining and value chain development.
This refining expansion represents a strategic shift. By building a stronger, integrated refining sector, Africa can move from being mainly a crude exporter to a regional refining hub, unlocking investment opportunities and boosting domestic energy security.
