According to the Paris-based International Energy Agency (IEA), India is projected to play a pivotal role in driving global oil demand growth by the end of the decade, fueled by robust economic expansion, population growth, and demographic trends.
The IEA forecasts that India will emerge as the primary driver of oil demand increase until 2030, closely trailing China in this aspect.
It is anticipated that India’s oil demand will surge by nearly 1.2 million barrels per day, constituting over a third of the projected global increase of 3.2 million barrels per day.
This significant rise in demand will predominantly stem from the industrial sector, particularly in diesel consumption, while aviation kerosene demand is expected to experience robust growth despite starting from a comparatively low base.
However, the growth in gasoline demand is anticipated to be modest, averaging around 0.7%, due to the proliferation of electric vehicles, which will mitigate a more substantial increase.
The IEA predicts that advancements in electric vehicles and energy efficiency measures will prevent an additional demand of 480 thousand barrels per day of oil between 2023 and 2030, underscoring the potential impact of sustainable energy initiatives.
In response to the escalating demand, the IEA estimates a corresponding increase in refinery distillation capacity by approximately 1 million barrels per day over the next seven years, positioning India as the second-largest contributor to refining capacity expansion globally, behind only China.
