The Organization of Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC) revised, on Tuesday 13th february, slightly upwards the forecast for global oil demand in 2023, estimated at 101.87 million barrels per day, 2.33 percent more than in 2022.
The 2.33 percent increase, which represents an increase of 2.32 million barrels per day in consumption from last year’s average of 99.55 million barrels per day, is 100,000 barrels per day or 0 .1 percent higher than the estimate a month ago, OPEC said in the monthly report.
The upward revision is mainly attributed to China’s economic recovery, which in turn would improve prospects in other regions.
The new forecasts are based on improved estimates of world economic growth both in 2022, now at 3.1 percent, and in 2023, at 2.6 percent.
Transport fuels will be the main drivers of oil demand, with annual increases of around 1.1 million barrels per day for gasoline and diesel to levels “well above pre-pandemic”.
“The key to the growth of oil demand in 2023 will be the return of China” after the lifting of the mobility restrictions that it had imposed in the “Zero Covid” policy to contain the pandemic, “and the effect that this will have on the country, in the region and in the world”, explain the experts of the organization based in Vienna.
They admit, however, that there is some “concern about the depth and pace of economic recovery” in China and that “much will depend on how the (Chinese) Government manages to maintain the delicate balance between combating Covid-19 contagions and opening to business”.
There are also other “concerns” that add uncertainty, such as high inflation rates, monetary policies, sovereign debt levels and geopolitical tensions, such as the Russian invasion of Ukraine.
To face “this considerable challenge”, OPEC considers it “important” to maintain the cut in the supply of two million barrels per day agreed with Russia and other allies in October, which came into force in November.
The 13 OPEC partners injected a total of 28.87 million barrels per day of oil in January, 490,000 barrels less per day than in December, according to figures published in the report based on “secondary sources”, or that is, estimates from independent institutes.
Reduction
The countries that most reduced their production were Saudi Arabia, by 157,000 barrels per day, Iraq (46,000 barrels per day) and Iran (22,000 barrels per day), while Angola, Kuwait and Venezuela increased extraction by 47,000, 45,000 and 20,000 barrels per day, respectively.
Outside OPEC, supply will increase by 2.35 percent compared to 2022, for a total of 67.16 million barrels per day, 0.15 percent less than the figure calculated in December.
The organization estimates that Russia, affected by the severe sanctions imposed by the aggression against Ukraine, which include a European Union embargo on crude imports, will see its oil production fall 8.17 percent this year, to 10.13 million of barrels per day.
On the other hand, the United States will see its extraction increase and will extract 20.14 million barrels per day, 5.8 percent more than in 2022, predicts the OPEC report.
