The price of Brent crude oil is expected to decline by $5 to $9 per barrel over the next 12 months due to a significant global supply surplus, particularly from non-OPEC (Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries) producers, and weakening demand driven by economic uncertainties in China and Europe.
These challenges could intensify if the U.S. government under Donald Trump imposes tariffs on imports from China and Europe.
According to international experts interviewed by Broadcast, a real-time news service from Grupo Estado, this forecast is feasible, as they do not foresee a significant escalation in military conflicts in the Middle East, especially between Israel and Iran.
Efforts by OPEC members to voluntarily cut oil production this year have reduced inventories and temporarily pushed prices higher. HSBC estimates that these measures will result in a daily supply deficit of 310,000 barrels relative to global demand in 2024.
However, this situation is projected to reverse in 2025, with an expected daily surplus of 500,000 barrels as supply rises to 104.4 million barrels per day, outpacing demand at 103.9 million barrels per day.
“The average price of Brent crude is anticipated to decline from $79 per barrel in 2024 to $70 per barrel in 2025,” stated Kim Fustier, HSBC’s Head of Oil and Gas Research for Europe.
