Angola’s Oil Production Set to Rebound in 2026 Despite Ongoing Economic Dependence
The consulting firm Oxford Economics forecasts that Angola’s oil production will increase to 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026, representing a 6.5 percent rise compared to the average daily output of 1.07 million barrels recorded in 2025.
According to a commentary on December oil production, the projected growth will be driven by the commissioning of new projects in the third quarter of last year, which are expected to reach full operational capacity during the first half of 2026. “We forecast that oil production will grow by 6.5 percent to 1.14 million barrels per day in 2026,” Oxford Economics noted.
Analysts highlight that Angola’s economy remains heavily reliant on hydrocarbons, with oil exports accounting for nearly 20 percent of gross domestic product and around 50 percent of state revenue in 2024.
In a note to clients, they stressed that, in the absence of viable alternatives to oil exports, the country has little option but to maintain production levels, even if global economic conditions result in lower export revenues.
Official data from the National Agency of Petroleum, Gas and Biofuels (ANPG) shows that Angola produced 31,863,172 barrels of crude oil in December 2025, equivalent to an average of 1,027,844 barrels per day. This figure fell below the projected monthly target of 1,080,238 barrels per day.
Despite lower-than-expected production, oil exports in December exceeded forecasts. Angola exported 35,258,138 barrels during the month, corresponding to a daily average of 1,137,359 barrels, above the projected 1,108,226 barrels per day.
Month-on-month data indicates a decline in production compared to November 2025, when average daily output stood at 1,060,660 barrels. However, production remained above the one-million-barrel-per-day threshold.
On a year-on-year basis, December 2025 production was slightly higher than in December 2024, when output totaled 31,763,054 barrels, with a daily average of 1,024,615 barrels, according to ANPG historical records.
In revenue terms, Angola earned approximately $24.4 billion from oil exports in 2025, marking a 22.16 percent decrease compared to 2024.
The country sold an estimated 357.1 million barrels of crude oil during the year, the government announced.
The Secretary of State for Oil and Gas, José Barroso, said Angolan crude was sold at an average price of $68.4 per barrel in 2025, down 14.19 percent from the previous year.
Export volumes also declined by 9.28 percent compared to 2024, when Angola exported 396.6 million barrels.
Presenting the oil production results for the fourth quarter of 2025, Barroso added that China, India, and Indonesia were the main destinations for Angolan crude last year, accounting for 58.57 percent, 11 percent, and 8.28 percent of exports, respectively.
