The consultancy FocusEconomics predicts that Angola’s economy will grow 3.2% this year and accelerate to up to 3.6% in 2024, also forecasting an expansion below the average of sub-Saharan African countries.
“Growth is expected to accelerate significantly this year, in a context in which the easing of restrictions related to the pandemic boosts domestic demand, while the external sector benefits from high raw material prices”, write analysts at FocusEconomics, in the monthly analysis of sub-Saharan African economies.
In the report, the consultant based in Barcelona, writes that high oil prices and the desire of European countries to diversify energy sources, moving away from Russian gas, are positive for Angola, which also benefits from good conditions external sources, improving public accounts.
Even so, the forecast growth of 3.2% for this year, 3.4% for 2023 and 3.6% for 2024 is always below the average forecast for the countries in the region, which are expected to grow 3.6% this year, 3.7% in 2023 and 3.9% in 2024.
“The growth of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be close to the highest in a decade, with the exception of the value registered last year”, write the analysts, stressing, however, that the risks remain.
“There are important risks that remain, motivated by the aftermath of the war in Ukraine; the twin deficits (fiscal and external) in some countries are increasing, and debt-to-GDP ratios in the region are being pushed to the highest levels in recent years. decades, putting many countries in ‘debt distress’ (debt too high)”, the report adds.
Analysts estimate that inflation in Angola will rise from 23.3% this year to 15.5% and 10.9% in the next two years, falling to single digits in 2025, at 9.9%.Inflation, which dropped to 23% in June from 24.4% in May, “is expected to continue to slow down in the second half of 2022, despite capital outflows and high commodity prices being major risks.” for this forecast”, conclude the analysts.
