Alrosa predicts that supply and demand for rough and polished diamonds will balance out in the coming months as midstream inventory levels decline.
Sergey Takhiev, Alrosa’s head of corporate finance, highlighted strong demand for jewelry and a reduction in diamond-mining capacity—down by up to 20% from 2018-2019 levels—will drive price growth.
He also pointed to the rapid rise of online jewelry sales, which has allowed jewelers to reduce inventory requirements.
“The normalization of inventories has taken time, but factors like the natural depletion of global diamond resources and the expanding luxury goods market will fuel long-term price increases,” Takhiev said.
Yulia Tolstykh, an analyst at Alfa-Bank, noted that the impact of lab-grown diamonds has diminished as synthetic diamond prices have fallen.
She forecasts a potential 50% recovery in natural diamond prices as inventory pressures ease within three to four months.
Tolstykh also observed rising demand from Chinese consumers shopping abroad, where diamonds are priced 20-30% cheaper than in mainland China.
Despite this trend, she emphasized the significant untapped potential for growth in domestic demand for diamond jewelry in China.
