The International Energy Agency (IEA) predicts a “significant deficit” in oil supply by the end of the year due to the decision of Saudi Arabia and Russia to maintain production cuts.
In the monthly report on the oil market released today, the IEA warns of increased volatility risk by the end of the year due to the low level of reserves and confirms the forecast of global demand growth this year by 2.2 million barrels per day, reaching 101.8 million, well above the previous record set in 2019.
In fact, in June, global demand already reached a historic peak in a single month, driven mainly by China’s needs, which will contribute to a growth of 1.6 million barrels per day this year (approximately 75% of the total), as well as the recovery of aviation kerosene and the petrochemical industry.
Demand growth will slow down next year, with an increase of just over 990,000 barrels per day, reaching a new record of 102.8 million, and China will once again be by far the main driver, absorbing an additional 640,000 barrels per day (almost two-thirds of the total).
