Contrary to OPEC, the executive director of the International Energy Agency (IEA) stated yesterday that the supply of oil will be “more than sufficient” to meet global demand in 2024 during an interview on the Bloomberg Talks podcast. According to Fatih Birol, the absence of major geopolitical conflicts or extreme climate events should keep the oil market “comfortable,” resulting in price moderation throughout the year.
Demand will be 1.2 to 1.34 million barrels. Birol predicts that demand will be significantly weaker in 2024 compared to last year. “Global demand will be approximately 1.2 to 1.34 million barrels per day this year, due to the slowdown in China’s growth the world’s most important oil catalyst and the electrification of the transportation system with electric vehicles,” he projected.
He also estimated that the demand for fossil fuels will peak before 2030, considering the faster-than-expected progress in transitioning to clean energy.
Regarding conflicts in the Middle East, Birol commented that he does not see pressure on the region’s major producers. “Now, if there is an escalation or involvement of one of these countries, energy prices may increase and create shocks to the global economy,” he said.
On the contrary, the fluctuation of oil prices at the current level should be consistent with the stability of global inflation, he predicted.
