The consultancy Focus Economics predicts that the Angolan economy will grow 3.2 percent this year and accelerate to up to 3.6 percent in 2024, also forecasting an expansion below the average of sub-Saharan African countries.
“Growth is expected to accelerate significantly this year, in a context in which the easing of restrictions related to the pandemic boosts domestic demand, while the external sector benefits from high raw material prices”, write analysts at Focus Economics. , in the monthly analysis of sub-Saharan African economies.
In the report, the Barcelona-based consultant writes that high oil prices and the desire of European countries to diversify energy sources, moving away from Russian gas, are positive for Angola, which also benefits from good external conditions, improving public accounts.
Even so, the forecast growth of 3.2 percent for this year, 3.4 percent for 2023 and 3.6 percent for 2024 is always below the average forecast for countries in the region, which are expected to grow 3.6 percent. percent this year, 3.7 percent in 2023 and 3.9 percent in 2024.
“The growth of sub-Saharan Africa is expected to be close to the highest in a decade, with the exception of the value registered last year”, write the analysts, stressing, however, that the risks remain.
“There are important risks that remain, motivated by the aftermath of the war in Ukraine; the twin deficits (fiscal and external) in some countries are increasing, and debt-to-GDP ratios in the region are being pushed to the highest levels in recent years. decades, putting many countries in ‘debt distress’ (debt too high)”, the report adds.
Analysts estimate that inflation in Angola will rise from 23.3 percent this year to 15.5 and 10.9 percent in the next two years, dropping to single digits in 2025, at 9.9 percent.
Inflation, which dropped to 23 percent in June from 24.4 percent in May, “is expected to continue to slow down in the second half of 2022, despite capital outflows and high raw material prices being big risks to this forecast”, conclude the analysts.
Oxford says revenue up 71.1 percent
Oil revenues in Angola rose 71.1 percent in the first half of the year, compared to the first six months of last year, despite output having increased by just 3.3 percent, according to consultancy Oxford Economics Africa.
“Despite historically low levels of oil production, Ministry of Finance statistics continue to show a strong improvement in oil revenues, mainly due to higher prices,” the analysts write, noting that revenues reached 4.2 billion. of kwanzas, in the first semester.
In a commentary on Angola’s oil production figures, analysts from Oxford Economics Africa estimate an increase in production this year, from 1.13 million barrels a day in 2021, to 1.18 million this year, but the forecast has a big impact. risk called China, the main buyer of Angolan oil.
“Although restrictions have relaxed in the largest Chinese cities in June, the risk of new outbreaks and confinements, which could limit Chinese demand for crude, remain high”, say the analysts, quoted today by Lusa, noting that China is the buyer of 70 percent of the oil coming from Angola, which was bought at US$112.7 per barrel in June.
