Since the start of the war, Saudi Arabia has been losing market share in China – the world’s biggest energy market – thanks to Russia selling its oil at steep discounts.
And even a production cut in Saudi Arabia earlier this month did not have the desired effect of raising prices to compensate for falling demand.
The chaos in Russia in recent days, in which the Wagner paramilitary group launched and then stopped an insurrection, has so far had little impact on the country’s energy sector.
But investors and analysts are watching the situation closely, among other things because of its potential to disrupt the delicate alliance between Russia and the Organization of the Petroleum Exporting Countries (OPEC), led by Saudi Arabia.
The tug of war over China has been one of the persistent sources of tension. In April, for example, Saudi Arabia’s oil exports to China were temporarily overtaken by Russia, only for Saudi Arabia to regain the top spot.
Now the two are more or less even again, but analysts say all signs point to Russia being ahead in the coming months.
Shipments from Russia now account for 14% of Chinese supplies, up from 8.8% pre-war, says commodity data provider Kpler. Saudi Arabia’s participation fell to 14.5% in the three months up to May.
