The Brent barrel, a reference for Angola’s oil exports, closed the week of May 22-26 at $77.14, a price that is more than $10 below the $85 taken as the baseline price in the 2023 State Budget (OGE/2023).
It is worth noting that the price has been below $80 for over a month now. On April 26, precisely, the barrel was traded at $77.69, during a period when the highest high was $79.54 and the lowest low was $72.33.
The monthly decline is estimated at about 4.5 percent. This also puts enormous pressure on producing countries, although in recent months OPEC, through the OPEC+ coordination mechanism, which brings together OPEC members led by Saudi Arabia and non-OPEC members led by Russia, has been engaging in more bilateral consultations. The objective is to prevent a sharp decline that would be detrimental to the projections of member countries. However, lower prices are better received by buyers, who are going against the “wishes” of global producers.
For example, Angola has a production of around 1.1 to 1.2 million barrels, and a decrease of about $10 per barrel represents a significant decline in fiscal revenue, as oil is still the largest fiscal contributor. There are also those who believe that conditions have been created for possible budgetary corrections.
